New Hampshire '08

Two things to admit: First - every damn month or so I write a blog entry and claim that I'm going to write more on this page. And then I don't (which at least shows some consistency). But this time I've got the handy and always reliable New Years Resolution to support my delusional promises, so I'm betting that these entries come quicker and sharper than before. Especially now that I've more time to spend avoiding my thesis than ever before. Any wagers?

Second - I was wrong on New Hampshire; I had Obama and Romney winning. And now, save some incredibly awesome (and unprecedented) statistical anomaly happening in the next hour within the final remaining ten percent of unreported precincts, it appears that Ms. Clinton and Mr. McCain have taken the state. To be fair to me, however, Obama took half of the counties, including my own (and by a large margin in all five). But I was way off on Romney's appeal, as he was essentially clubbed to death in Grafton by over twenty-five percentage points. Ouch.

Fortunately, as a matter of course, nearly everyone political was wrong about everything political in the last two weeks: Novak had Romney rallying in NH; McAuliffe had Clinton losing by twenty here, and winning by twenty in Iowa; Drudge had Hillary dropping out of the race as early as this evening.

Still, I wasn't too far off. Obama only lost by three percentage points, and Romney only by five. Sure, it is a slight momentum shift for Hillary after the Iowa loss and the predicted collapse, but she shouldn't get too damn cockey, especially after losing a twenty point lead in less than two months. As for Romney: well, two solid second-place finishes (oh, and a win in Montana) in a race with no clear front-runner could highlight his general electability and push him ahead in Nevada and South Carolina, thus making him a real threat to Giuliani come Super Tuesday.

That's all the analysis I am up for, but I'll end with this: how great was it to see Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman hate each other all night? Fantastic.

And one last thing: Can someone please tell me how Hillary crying at a campaign rally is a "human" moment? Why is this not a bigger news story? It is simply unprecedented for a national presidential candidate to cry on the campaign trail while commenting on the process of running. Can you imagine if a man had done this? Is it that easy to play such simplistic and trite gender politics? I'm not saying she shouldn't have cried or didn't have a reason to cry or even that I wouldn't have cried. I'm sure it is damn hard - man or woman. But publicly? Very odd, indeed. Who knows, maybe it did help....